A Critical Note from Afghanistan July 2015

The following is a note from Fahim Masoud, who is visiting his family in Herat, Afghanistan.  I present it here as received.  This is Mr Masoud’s sincere appraisal of the situation.  He is deeply discouraged about the prospects.  This is significant because in the past he has held high hopes for the future of his country.  Fahim is a well informed commentator on affairs in Afghanistan and Central Asian affairs, which makes his dark estimation of the situation all the more sobering.  RLC

The Wall Street Journal has an article on the first female Afghan pilot who has been getting a lot of recognition from around the world. Though now her life is at risk. She’s getting all kinds of threats from the Taliban and her own relatives. This is one example showing how terrible the security situation is in Afghanistan.

This will break your heart, but I believe (BELIEVE) there’s no future for Afghanistan. There’s no order in this country. The people of Afghanistan have devolved into a soul-less bunch. They have no compassion. No understanding of one another. They are too intolerant and cannot accept each other’s differences. This is what the war has done to them. This is what unemployment and lack of resources are doing to them. Ethnic divisions have become much more obvious and pronounced.

Leaders from all around the country voice their support of one ethnic group over another vociferously. Tonight I’m at a gathering in which a bunch of people from a prominent village in Herat are here. They are talking about an “arbab” or village leader chosen by the people of the village. It’s been months since this village is without an arbab yet no one has been chosen yet — even though the village desperately needs one.

Folks in this village cannot choose their leader because they haven’t reconciled their tensions over whether a Tajik or Pashtoon leader should get elected. It’s a shame because most of my father’s relatives claim to be Pashtoon yet they cannot speak a word of Pashto. It’s crazy to be fighting over the election of a leader when you have nothing but the zai suffix at the end of their names.

This county is in a lot of mess. You need to be here to see the degree of chaos and disorder. No one cares. No one. Everyone is here to enrich themselves and walk away. Thousands of people are leaving this country on a daily basis. What’s so amazing is that there are a great number of really, really nice houses on sale in Herat now. The owners of these houses are not only selling their houses but also everything in them. Home prices have gone down significantly because no one is buying anything anymore. There’s no flow of cash. Too many people are on the streets begging for money to feed themselves.

The whole survival of the country depends on the presence of U.S. troops.

Ghani has proven himself a very incompetent leader. He’s disappointed everyone in this country. I doubt he came make it.

A guest of ours a few nights ago said something very wise. He said we liked Karzai because he was our beggar. He said Karzai didn’t mind going abroad and begging for money — to the point that once on a trip to Iran, he brought a bag of cash with him on the plane. Ghani — on the other hand, he said, is too proud and arrogant. He’s too proud to ask for aid. Instead, to make up for the government’s expenses, Ghani has raised taxes on people. This gentleman, after changing his posture, and making sure I was fully listening, said to me, “how dumb is it to raise taxes when people have no money and there’s no business?”

The seriousness and sincerity of his voice, the gravity and reality of the situation made me think very hard about this issue. It reminded of the United States. The reason Americans began their war of independence against the British was taxation without representation. How can you tax people heavily when you can’t give them proper representation, security, and employment? Such a really stupid move on Ghani’s part.

One thing is for certain. This situation is not sustainable. Something catastrophic is inevitable in Afghanistan. Most foreigners don’t say this because they are in Kabul. They don’t visit the provinces often. Kabul is pretty safe. There’s money. Bureaucracy and lots of non-governmental agencies are in Kabul, keeping many Kabulis employed. This is not the case in provinces. None of Herat’s districts and villages are safe and there are Taliban presence in almost all of them.
More later.
Fahim

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